By Michael Hawley | How the Straight Talk Express caught up to Obamamania.
It was June and the presidential race seemed over before it had really begun. Barack Obama had clinched the Democratic nomination and was poised to cruise to an easy victory. With an unpopular war, a less popular president, and a slouching economy, the Republican Party faced an uphill battle against historical trends that pointed to a devastating defeat. To make matters worse, in an election where the buzzword is “change,” the GOP had nominated yet another white guy who had been born when the New Deal was still brand new. Somewhere in the Democratic National Committee, someone was picking out new drapes for the Oval Office. But, since then, John McCain’s unappreciated political acumen has allowed him to take advantage of Democtratic blunders.
For much of the summer, the race seemed to follow the script written by the media. Democratic strategists were predicting a 40 state victory. Obama took a brief break from addressing adoring crowds of tens of thousands of Americans to address adoring crowds of tens of thousands of Europeans, stopping to meet heads of state as if his election were merely a formality. Meanwhile, John McCain was hosting town hall meetings back home with crowds of around 200, struggling not to become irrelevant.
But today, McCain and Obama are statistically tied, and suddenly the once-dormant conservative base seems to have found new life. Many formerly cocksure Democrats are now calling their local hotlines to complain of anxiety over an election they thought was a done deal. “How could this be happening again?” they ask.
Of all the major events thus far in the campaign, the unveiling of Sarah Palin rightly deserves credit as having had the greatest impact. By keeping his choice a secret and revealing it on the day after the Democratic National Convention, John McCain managed to make people completely forget about Barack Obama’s soaring acceptance speech, and stole the media’s attention for two weeks. Palin’s youth, femininity, and personal story made an instant visceral connection with millions of ordinary Americans and single-handedly rebranded the GOP as a party of freshness and reform. Her political skills were displayed again under pressure when she delivered a stirringly successful speech at the Republican National Convention despite the malfunction of her teleprompter.
However, McCain did not vault his candidacy into viability with one move. Over the summer, McCain had already clawed his way out of a large deficit by disciplining his campaign and finding new ways to attack Obama. He began to turn Barack’s celebrity status into a punch line through creative and humorous ads. He continued to take politically courageous action, including an address to the NAACP in July. Whereas Obama addressed tightly controlled crowds from behind his teleprompter, McCain took unscripted questions from audience members in his town halls.
Republican political strategist Ron Kaufman came to Tufts last week as part of Professor Alan Solomont’s Election ’08 class. He argues that a few other factors have also kept this race so close. He points out that in the past 40 years, no Democratic candidate for President has won running as a northern liberal. So, while this would appear a year for the pendulum to swing toward the Democrats, most of America is reluctant to elect America’s most liberal senator, with America’s third-most liberal senator as his running mate. Thus, Obama’s selection might prove another historic example of Democrats overreaching, straying too far from America’s political center.
Kaufman also points out that more people actually watched John McCain’s acceptance speech than watched Obama’s. Moreover, according to polls, McCain’s speech resonated with voters significantly more than Obama’s. This would surprise many who have witnessed the spellbinding effect of Barack Obama’s oratory and John McCain’s lackluster speaking style. Perhaps a research team in Queen’s University in Kingston, Ontario has found the reason for this. Researcher David Skillicorn’s team has produced an algorithm that can allegedly detect “spin” in political speeches. By analyzing certain words and phrases in a person’s speech, the algorithm evaluates how often a candidate “presents themselves or their content in a way that does not necessarily reflect what they know to be true.” High positive numbers indicate a high level of spin, whereas low negative numbers indicate a low level of spin, with zero being average. Barack Obama’s acceptance speech received a whopping 6.7, while McCain’s trademark straight talk earned him an honest -7.58. Hillary Clinton received almost exactly a zero. Perhaps American voters have also spotted this greater disingenuousness in Barack Obama and have accordingly penalized him in the polls.
Thus, McCain’s rise in popularity can be attributed to more than just the “Palin Bounce.” Democratic errors combined with John McCain’s honest, courageous campaign have given the Republican Party a chance to win an election they were supposed to lose. This is by no means to suggest that Republicans can breathe easy. John McCain has given his party a chance, but a long hard slog remains if the GOP is to convince voters to let them stay in the White House.
Mr. Hawley is a sophomore who has not yet declared a major.
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